Justin Chimka
U of A researchers have developed a statistical model of the typical operations at general aviation airports. General aviation refers to civilian flying, which includes private and business flights, flight training and crop dusting.
Supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Mack-Blackwell Rural Transportation Center, the research could help officials detect unusual activity or behavior that might be associated with a security threat.
“We want to understand the variation associated with usual general-aviation activity and operations, so unusual activity can be detected, analyzed and resolved,” said Justin Chimka, associate professor of industrial engineering and a researcher at the rural transportation center. “In other words, how big does a statistical error have to be for it to be considered a threat?”
Chimka and student Ryan Black analyzed and recreated existing models used to predict growth at general aviation airports. After rendering the models more accurate and efficient, they systematically developed them for security purposes. The models relied on basic demographic information – annual number of landings and takeoffs, total number of planes based at an airport, whether an airport has a traffic-control tower, for example – and other detailed data.